$BIRTH is a monthly index of realized US births — the supply anchor of the Net Labor Capacity family, DMX's forward measure of labor scarcity. Versioned methodology, frozen parameters, stated revision policy. In development; onboarding anchor data clients now.
DMX ingests provisional birth data directly from state vital-statistics systems and archives every vintage with a cryptographic fingerprint. Any published value can be reproduced as it was known on any date. Below: data from the live pipeline.
Pension funds, insurers, sovereign funds and labor-intensive corporates price one unknown from two directions: how much work will need doing decades out, and how many people will be there to do it. Both halves are currently answered with material that was never built to be relied on — fertility numbers that are forecasts, and AI-labor numbers that quietly blend what could be automated with what demonstrably was.
On the supply side that means official state vital records — the same underlying events behind federal birth statistics. This is not an alternative estimate of US births; it is the same events, assembled sooner. The demand leg holds to the same rule: only displacement an employer has itself attributed, under published inclusion rules.
Only registered births enter $BIRTH. Only employer-attributed displacement enters D-R. No forecast enters either.
A modelled series — D-X, exposure-implied displacement — publishes beside the realized one, never inside it. The distance between them is published too, as DRR.
One versioned public specification covering both legs, limitations disclosed. Not a black box.
Revision-logged and designed to align with the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks.
Most AI-and-labor numbers measure one of two things and rarely say which: what could be automated, or what demonstrably was. DMX publishes both, separately — the distance between them is the most useful number either produces.
Admits only employer-attributed displacement, under published inclusion rules with corroboration and seasoning requirements and a public event log. If it cannot be attributed, it does not enter the series.
Task-exposure models paired with adoption measures. It measures potential, and overstates hour removal — automated tasks often reallocate within a role rather than disappear. Published anyway, because pairing it with D-R turns that bias into information.
DRR answers the question every institutional user of AI-labor analysis is currently asking: how much of theoretical exposure is landing as realized, attributed displacement? Rising toward one, exposure is converting into outcomes. Persistently low, the story is reallocation or augmentation — a different world to underwrite.
What the demand leg does not claim. No causal identification of AI's effect on employment, anywhere. D-R is an attribution measure under published rules; D-X is an exposure model. The composites are defined over those published constructions, not over an unobservable true effect.
The $BIRTH national print publishes free once the federal estimate for the same month is out. Licensing buys the same number at least six weeks earlier — typically eleven — with daily indicative updates between prints, state detail, full history, API delivery for Python, R and Snowflake, and redistribution rights. Pricing is indicative; final tier terms publish with the first print.
The national $BIRTH print, panel-observed and national-estimate series side by side, monthly for the reference month six months back — after the federal estimate for it — with the methodology paper and revision log. Free to cite with attribution; not licensed for redistribution, derived products, or settlement use.
The same national print at full lead time, with daily indicative updates between prints, complete history and the revision log via API. SOC 2 in progress.
Quant funds · Terminal distribution
Macro research
desks
State-level birth series and the S-series forward labor supply at 5, 10 and 20 years, at full lead time, with API access and monthly commentary. State series are settlement-grade where the jurisdiction grants redistribution in writing — 14 jurisdictions, 41.3% of US births at launch, growing by confirmation.
Real estate · Insurers · Pension consultants
Healthcare ·
Education
The full Net Labor Capacity family, delivered in stages as each series launches: NLC-5/10/20 scarcity composites, both demand series and the Displacement Realization Ratio, dedicated analyst access, and priority access to new products. Priced to the mandate.
Macro hedge funds · Sovereign wealth funds
Investment
banks · Global pension consultants
Founding rates for the first cohort on all paid tiers, in exchange for a multi-year term and reference rights.
A 30-day evaluation license is available for every paid tier: full access, no redistribution, converts or expires.
Realized births converted into forward labor supply at five, ten and twenty year horizons through cohort accounting on frozen schedules. Deterministic and independently replicable.
Two demand series, never blended: D-R for realized displacement, D-X for structural exposure. DRR is the ratio between them.
Demand relative to supply at each horizon — a leading indicator of wage pressure. Above 100, tightening; below 100, surplus.
Onboarding anchor data clients ahead of the first official print. Common questions — coverage, revisions, what the free tier permits — are answered on the FAQ.
Or request the methodology paper.
$BIRTH and the Net Labor Capacity Index Family are proprietary data products of DMX Analytics Inc., a Delaware corporation. Products described are in development; specifications and pricing are indicative and subject to change. Website is informational only and does not constitute an offer to sell securities.
The national $BIRTH print, published on the federal release schedule, with the methodology paper and a summary revision log. We'll email you a confirmation link.
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